Retirement planning, done honestly
Clear, evidence-based writing on UK retirement planning — Monte Carlo modelling, sequence of returns risk, safe withdrawal rates, and the assumptions most calculators get wrong.
Monte Carlo Simulation: The Maths Behind the Method
From a solitaire game at Los Alamos to the engine inside every serious retirement planner. What Monte Carlo actually does, why it is the most honest tool available, where it can mislead you — and how odoPT is designed to address its limitations.
Read the deep diveStress-testing a UK retirement plan against a 2008-style crash
Most retirement plans assume markets behave predictably — they don't. In this walkthrough I run a 2008-style crash through a real UK retirement scenario in odoPT: 5,000 simulated futures, realistic inflation paths, seven withdrawal strategies, and the fan chart that shows what survival actually looks like.
What Is Sequence of Returns Risk — and Why It Could Derail Your Retirement
You could do everything right — save diligently, invest sensibly, retire on schedule — and still run out of money. Sequence of returns risk is why. Here is what it is, how it works, and what you can do about it.
Monte Carlo Simulation: The Maths Behind the Method
From a solitaire game at Los Alamos to the engine inside every serious retirement planner. What Monte Carlo does, why it is the most honest tool available, where it can mislead you — and how odoPT addresses its limitations.
The Cash Buffer Strategy: Why Retirees Keep 2 Years in Cash
Keeping 1–2 years of living expenses in cash sounds too simple to matter. It is one of the most effective defences against the risk that actually destroys retirement plans — being forced to sell investments at the bottom of a crash.
The Safe Withdrawal Rate in the UK: Is the 4% Rule Still Valid?
The 4% rule was built on US market data. UK retirees face different tax rules, different market returns, and a State Pension. Here is what the research actually says — and what rate you should use instead.
Why Your Retirement Calculator Is Probably Lying to You
Most UK retirement calculators project your future using a single assumed return rate. That assumption is dangerously wrong — and it hides the risk that actually derails retirement plans.